Ukugqithiselwa koluhlu:I-LME's “short trap” kunye ne-COMEX “premium bubble” isitokhwe sobhedu se-LME sehle saya kutsho kwi-138,000 yeetoni, isiqingatha ukusuka ekuqaleni konyaka. Phezulu, obu bubungqina be-ironclad bokubonelela okuqinileyo. Kodwa emva kwedatha, i-transatlantic "inventory migration" iyenzeka: Izitokhwe zethusi ze-COMEX ziye zanyuka nge-90% kwiinyanga ezimbini, ngelixa i-LME iqhubekile ukuphuma. Oku kungahambi kakuhle kutyhila inyani ephambili - intengiso idala ukunqongophala kwengingqi. Abarhwebi batshintshe ubhedu ukusuka kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla ze-LME ukuya e-United States ngenxa yesimo esinzima solawulo lukaTrump kwiirhafu zentsimbi. Iprimiyamu yangoku ye-COMEX yekamva lobhedu kwi-LME yobhedu iphezulu njenge-$1,321 ngetoni nganye. Lo mahluko wexabiso ugqithise kakhulu imveliso "yentlawulo ye-arbitrage": abaqikeleli babheja ukuba i-United States inokumisela amaxabiso ekuthengisweni kobhedu kwixesha elizayo, kunye nenqanawa yentsimbi ukuya eUnited States kwangaphambili ukutshixa kwiprimiyamu. Lo msebenzi ufana ncakasana nesehlo se-"Tsingshan Nickel" ngo-2021. Ngelo xesha, izitokhwe zenickel ze-LME zaye zacinywa ubukhulu becala zaza zathunyelwa kwiindawo zokugcina iimpahla zase-Asia, nto leyo ebangela ngokuthe ngqo ukucudisa okufutshane okukhulu. Namhlanje, umlinganiselo weerisithi ezirhoxisiweyo ze-LME usephezulu ukuya kutsho kuma-43%, nto leyo ethetha ukuba kukhutshwa ubhedu olungaphezulu kwindawo yokugcina impahla. Emva kokuba olu bhedu lugeleza kwi-warehouse ye-COMEX, okubizwa ngokuba "kunqongophala kokubonelela" kuya kuwa ngokukhawuleza.
Uloyiko lomgaqo-nkqubo: "Intonga yerhafu" kaTrump iyigqwetha njani imarike?
Inyathelo likaTrump lokunyusa amaxabiso e-aluminiyam kunye nentsimbi ukuya kwi-50% iye yaba yi-fuse eyabangela ukuxhalaba kumaxabiso obhedu. Nangona ubhedu bungekafakwa kuluhlu lweerhafu, imarike sele iqalile "ukuziqhelanisa" neyona meko imbi kakhulu. Lo mkhuba wokuthenga wothusayo wenze ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo ube sisiprofeto esizizalisekisayo. Ukuphikisana okunzulu kukuba iUnited States ayinakukwazi ukuhlawula iindleko zokuphazamisa ukuthengiswa kobhedu. Njengomnye wabathengi abakhulu bobhedu behlabathi, iUnited States idinga ukuthenga ngaphandle kwe-3 yezigidi zeetoni zobhedu olusulungekileyo nyaka ngamnye, ngelixa imveliso yayo yasekhaya isisisigidi seetoni kuphela. Ukuba imirhumo ibekwe kubhedu, amashishini asezantsi afana neemoto kunye nombane aya kuthi ekugqibeleni ahlawule ityala. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo “wokuzidubula enyaweni” ngowona mgaqo-nkqubo uyinto nje yokuxoxisana ngemidlalo yezopolitiko, kodwa itolikwa yimarike njengento embi kakhulu.
Ukuphazamiseka kwemveliso: Ngaba ukunqunyanyiswa kwemveliso eDemocratic Republic of Congo “lidada elimnyama” okanye “ingwe yephepha”?
Ukunqunyanyiswa ngokufutshane kwemveliso kumgodi wobhedu waseKakula eDemocratic Republic of the Congo kubaxiwe ziinkunzi njengomzekelo wobunzima bokubonelela. Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba imveliso yomgodi ngo-2023 iya kwenza kuphela i-0.6% yelizwe lonke, kwaye i-Ivanhoe Mines ibhengeze ukuba iya kuqalisa kwakhona imveliso kule nyanga. Xa kuthelekiswa neziganeko ezikhawulezayo, yintoni eyona nto ifaneleke ngakumbi ukuqaphela i-bottleneck yokubonelela ixesha elide: ibakala lobhedu lwehlabathi lonke liyaqhubeka nokuhla, kwaye umjikelezo wophuhliso lweeprojekthi ezintsha ubude beminyaka eyi-7-10. Le yingqiqo yexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elide elixhasa amaxabiso obhedu. Nangona kunjalo, imarike yangoku iye yawela ekungahambelani phakathi "kokuqikelelwa kwexesha elifutshane" kunye "nexabiso lexesha elide". Iimali eziqikelelwayo zisebenzisa naziphi na iziphazamiso zecala lonikezelo ukwenza ukothuka, kodwa ngoyaba inguqu engundoqo-i-inventri efihliweyo yaseTshayina. Ngokoqikelelo lwe-CRU, indawo yase-China ebotshelelweyo kunye ne-inventri yamajelo angekho sikweni inokugqithisa iitoni ezisisigidi esi-1, kwaye le nxalenye “ye-undercurrent” inokuba “sisivalo sokhuseleko” ukuzinzisa amaxabiso nangaliphi na ixesha.
Amaxabiso obhedu: ukuhamba ngentambo phakathi kokucudisa okufutshane kunye nokuwa
Ngokobuchwephesha, emva kokuba amaxabiso obhedu aphule amanqanaba angundoqo okuchasa, abatyali-mali abaqhelekileyo abanjengeemali ze-CTA bakhawulezise ukungena kwabo, benza i-loop yengxelo efanelekileyo "yokunyuka-okufutshane kokunyuka kokunyuka". Nangona kunjalo, oku kunyuka okusekwe kurhwebo olukhawulezayo kudla ngokuphela "kwi-V-shaped reversal". Nje ukuba ulindelo lwamaxabiso lungaphumeleli okanye umdlalo wogqithiselo lwempahla uphelile, amaxabiso ekopolo anokujongana nolungiso olubukhali. Kwishishini, imeko yangoku yeprimiyamu ephezulu iyayigqwetha indlela yokubeka amaxabiso: isaphulelo sendawo ye-LME ukuya kuMatshi ubhedu lundisiwe, lubonisa ukuthengwa komzimba okubuthathaka; ngelixa imarike yeCOMEX ilawulwa yimali eqikelelwayo, kwaye amaxabiso agqwethiwe kakhulu. Esi sakhiwo semarike esahlulayo siya kuhlawulwa ekugqibeleni ngabathengi-onke amashishini axhomekeke kubhedu, ukusuka kwizithuthi zombane ukuya kumaziko edatha, aya kuba phantsi koxinzelelo lweendleko.
Isishwankathelo: Lumkela "icarnival yentsimbi" ngaphandle kobonelelo kunye nenkxaso yemfuno
Phakathi kokuvuyisa kwamaxabiso obhedu aqhekeza uphawu lwetriliyoni yeedola, kufuneka sicinge ngokuzola: xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqhawulwe kwimfuno yokwenyani kwaye xa imidlalo ye-inventri ithatha indawo yengqiqo yezoshishino, olu hlobo "lwempumelelo" lujoliswe ukuba lube yinqaba eyakhiwe esantini. Uluhlu lwerhafu lukaTrump lungakwazi ukunyusa amaxabiso exeshana elifutshane, kodwa eyona nto imisela ikamva lamaxabiso ekopolo iseyimpembelelo kushishino lwemveliso yehlabathi. Kulo mdlalo phakathi kwenkunzi kunye nemibutho, kubaluleke kakhulu ukuhlala unengqondo kunokuleqa amaqamza.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-07-2025