Uxinzelelo lwedola elomeleleyo, ukothuka kwexabiso lobhedu indlela yokusombulula? Ulwalathiso lomgaqo-nkqubo wezinga lenzala laseMelika ekugxininiseni!

NgoLwesithathu (ngoDisemba 18), i-dollar yase-US isalathiso esincinci sothuso emva kokuphindaphinda ukuya phezulu, ukusuka kwi-16: 35 GMT, i-dollar index kwi-106.960 (+ 0.01, + 0.01%); I-oyile ekrwada yase-US iphambili i-02 bias ukuya phezulu kwi-70.03 (+ 0.38, + 0.55%).

Usuku lobhedu lwaseShanghai lwalubuthathaka, isivumelwano esiphambili se-2501 ekugqibeleni savalwa nge-0.84%, ixabiso lokuvala kwi-73,930 yuan. Umoya olumkileyo wentengiso uyatyhutyha, ipleyiti engeyiyo i-ferrous indawo enkulu phantsi koxinzelelo lokuwa. Okwangoku kwimfuno yobhedu yexesha elide, ukusebenza kweemarike kuthanda ukuba buthathaka, ukuthengiselana kwendawo kuyancipha, amaxabiso obhedu enze ingcinezelo. Ukongeza, ithoni ye-hawkish ye-Federal Reserve eyafanekiselwa kwangaphambili indlela yokuncitshiswa kwexabiso lenzala kunyaka ozayo inokuba nzima ukuchasana, kunye neemarike zaseYurophu kunye neMelika ngaphambi kweeholide zeKrisimesi, umngcipheko wokutya wawa, ubhedu lwaseShanghai luyaqhubeka nokugcina umkhwa wokothuka.

Isibhengezo sesisombululo senzala ye-Federal Reserve sisondele, iimali zakhetha ukubiyela inzuzo-ukuthatha kude nemarike, okubangelwa amaxabiso obhedu ngaphezu koxinzelelo. Nangona i-Fed ixoxe ngokuphindaphindiweyo ngamanani enzala kulo nyaka kodwa ayizange inqumle inzala, inkani yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ibangele ukuhlehliswa kokunciphisa inzala, ukusebenza kwe-dollar index kunamandla. Nangona uPowell wenza isalathiso sokunciphisa inzala ecacileyo kwintlanganiso yonyaka yeebhanki eziphambili zehlabathi, ngoSeptemba uvule inqanaba lesibini lenzala yonyaka, kodwa idola isenamandla. Ingakumbi emva kokuba uTrump ephumelele impumelelo kamongameli ngoNovemba, idola yanda. Ukongeza, kule ntlanganiso yokugqibela yenzala yonyaka, i-Fed yazisa ithoni ye-hawkish, nangona ukunqunyulwa kweqondo likaDisemba sisigqibo esichazwe ngaphambili, kodwa izinga lokunqunyulwa kweJanuwari kunyaka ozayo linokucotha, amagosa e-Fed aya kuqaphela ngakumbi kwixesha elizayo kwindlela yokunciphisa izinga lenzala, umjikelo wokunciphisa inzala unokuba yithuba elifutshane, isiqingatha sesibini sonyaka okanye ukuyeka, idola yase-US inokuthi iqhube, i-dollar yase-US inokuthi iqhube i-copper.

Kuqoqosho lwangaphakathi kuye kwakho ukuthotywa kwemilinganiselo kabini apha enyakeni, okunamandla kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo kwaye kukhululwe ukuba nokwenzeka kwemigaqo-nkqubo yokucuthwa kwamaxabiso. Okwangoku, amazinga enzala anqunywe kathathu kwaye i-LPR ihlengahlengiswe ukukhuthaza uphuhliso loqoqosho oluphezulu. Umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali uyasebenza, ukukhutshwa kweebhondi ezikhethekileyo zobuncwane, inkxaso yetyala lendawo, imarike yezindlu, njl. ngoNovemba ukukhululwa ngokusemthethweni umgaqo-nkqubo isivuseleli macro, ukwandisa umda amatyala karhulumente wasekhaya, iminyaka emihlanu ilandelelana ukulungiselela ityala bond ekhethekileyo, imeko yezoqoqosho kulindeleke ukuba uzinze kwaye elungileyo, ixabiso lobhedu linempembelelo entle. Ukongeza, umgaqo-nkqubo 'worhwebo phakathi' unyuse umdla wabathengi kwinqwelo-moya entsha yamandla kunye neemarike zezixhobo zendlu, ukuxhasa imbonakalo yemfuno yentengiso yesinyithi kunye nokunciphisa ukuhla kwamaxabiso ekopolo.

Ngokusisiseko, umsebenzi wasemgodini wobhedu waseChile u-Antofagasta uvumelene ne-Jiangxi Copper yaseChina kunye nezinye izinyibilikisi kumrhumo wonyango wokulinganisa wonyaka ozayo, ukwehla okubukhali kwimirhumo ebonisa ipateni exineneyo ekupheleni kwemigodi, ebonisa ukuqhubekeka kwemiqobo yokubonelela kunyaka ozayo, eya kuxhasa amaxabiso obhedu. Nangona kunjalo, ii-odolo ezintsha kwiimarike ziyancipha, kodwa ezininzi iinkampani zinee-odolo ezaneleyo kwangaphambili, zixhasa izinga lokuqala ekuqaleni kukaDisemba ukugcina izinga eliphezulu. Ngexesha elifanayo, ekupheleni kukaDisemba, ezininzi iintonga zethusi kunye namashishini asezantsi aya kuqhuba ukuhlaliswa kokuphela konyaka, okanye inxalenye yemfuno ekhutshwe kwangaphambili ukuya phakathi nasekuqaleni kukaDisemba. Kodwa ngokubanzi, umoya wokuphela konyaka ngokuthe ngcembe uguquka, i-terminal iphantsi ukuzalisa ukunqongophala kwamandla e-kinetic, ubuthathaka bomphezulu wokuthengiselana buyabonakala, ukusetyenziswa kulindeleke ukuba kongeze ukubanda, amaxabiso obhedu aphantsi koxinzelelo kumothuko obuthathaka.

Ukuthathela ingqalelo imeko yangoku enkulu kunye nencinci, i-macro factor iseyeyona nto iphambili kumaxabiso. Nangona ukusetyenziswa kweemarike zobhedu kugcina ukuqina, uluhlu lwempahla luyaqhubeka nokuxhasa amaxabiso. Kodwa kwisiqingatha sesibini sikaDisemba, umoya wokuphela konyaka uya ungqingqwa ngokuthe ngcembe, i-terminal ayinamandla aneleyo okuzalisa uluhlu oluphantsi, ubuthathaka bomphezulu wentengiselwano buyabonakala. Amaxabiso obhedu kulindeleke ukuba abe phantsi koxinzelelo kunye nomothuko obuthathaka. Nangona kunjalo, ngokuqwalasela inqanaba eliphantsi le-inventory yentlalo yasekhaya kunye nokuphela konyaka, kukho umyalelo okhawulezayo, amaxabiso obhedu ngexesha elifutshane elingaphantsi kwendawo okanye akakwazi ukuvula ngokukhawuleza. Ngoko ke, ekusebenzeni kufuneka kugweme ukugxotha okufutshane, ukulinda ukuphindaphinda emva kokuba ithuba elifutshane eliphakamileyo linikwe kuqala.

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Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-19-2024