Inkcazo:Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, kunye nokuphumelela okuqhubekayo kwetekhnoloji yezixhobo zenickel kunye nophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini elitsha lamandla, ipateni yeshishini le-nickel yehlabathi lonke iye yatshintsha kakhulu, kwaye amashishini axhaswa ngemali ngamaTshayina adlale indima ebalulekileyo ekukhuthazeni. uhlaziyo lwepateni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi.Kwangaxeshanye, iye yenza igalelo elibalaseleyo kukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.
Hlonipha iMarike kwaye uhloniphe iMarike——Indlela yokuphucula uKhuseleko lweNickel Supply Chain yaseTshayina ukusuka kwi "Nickel Futures Incident"
Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, kunye nokuphumelela okuqhubekayo kwetekhnoloji yezixhobo zenickel kunye nophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini elitsha lamandla, ipateni yeshishini lenickel yehlabathi lonke iye yatshintsha kakhulu, kwaye amashishini axhaswa ngemali ngamaTshayina adlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ukukhuthaza uhlaziyo lwepateni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi.Kwangaxeshanye, iye yenza igalelo elibalaseleyo kukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.Kodwa ixabiso le-nickel yaseLondon ikusasa ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka linyuke nge-248% engazange ibonwe kwiintsuku ezimbini, ebangela umonakalo omkhulu kwiinkampani zangempela kuquka ne-China.Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ukusuka kwiinguqu kwipatheni yeshishini le-nickel kwiminyaka yamuva, edityaniswe "nesiganeko sexesha elizayo le-nickel", umbhali uthetha malunga nendlela yokuphucula ukhuseleko lwe-China ye-nickel supply chain.
Utshintsho kwipatheni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi
Ngokomlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa, ukusetyenziswa kwe-nickel kuye kwanda ngokukhawuleza, kwaye i-China inegalelo eliphambili ekusetyenzisweni kwe-nickel yehlabathi.Ngokweenkcukacha-manani ze-Nickel Industry Branch ye-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ngo-2021, ukusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yokuqala yehlabathi kuya kufikelela kwi-2.76 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-15.9% kunye ne-1.5 amaxesha okusetyenziswa ngo-2001. kubo, ngo 2021, ukusetyenziswa nickel ekrwada China kuya kufikelela 1.542 million tons, ukunyuka konyaka-on-year 14%, 18 amaxesha ukusetyenziswa 2001, kunye nenani lokusetyenziswa kwehlabathi liye landa ukusuka 4.5% ngo-2001 ukuya ngoku 56 %.Kunokuthiwa i-90% yokwanda kokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yehlabathi ukususela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha ivela eChina.
Ukususela kumbono wesakhiwo sokusetyenziswa, ukusetyenziswa kwensimbi engenasici kuzinzile, kwaye umlinganiselo we-nickel osetyenziswa kwintsimi yebhetri uyaqhubeka nokukhula.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, icandelo elitsha lamandla likhokela ukukhula kokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yokuqala yehlabathi.Ngokutsho kwezibalo, kwi-2001, kwisakhiwo sokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yaseChina, i-nickel yensimbi engenasici ibalwa malunga ne-70%, i-nickel ye-electroplating ibalwa kwi-15%, kunye ne-nickel yeebhetri zibalwa kuphela kwi-5%.Ngo-2021, umlinganiselo we-nickel osetyenziswa kwinsimbi engenasici ekusetyenzisweni kwe-nickel yaseChina uya kuba malunga ne-74%;umlinganiselo wenickel osetyenziswa kwiibhetri uya kunyukela kwi-15%;umlinganiselo wenickel osetyenziswa kwi-electroplating uya kuhla ukuya kwi-5%.Akuzange kubonwe ukuba njengoko imboni entsha yamandla ingena kwindlela ekhawulezayo, imfuno ye-nickel iya kwanda, kwaye umlinganiselo weebhetri kwisakhiwo sokusetyenziswa uya kunyuka ngakumbi.
Ngokombono wepatheni yokubonelela ngezinto eziluhlaza, izinto eziluhlaza zenickel ziye zaguqulwa zisuka kwi-nickel sulfide ore ikakhulu kwi-lateite nickel ore kunye ne-nickel sulfide ore elawulwa ngokudibeneyo.Imithombo ye-nickel yangaphambili yayiyi-ore ye-nickel sulfide enezixhobo ezigxininiswe kakhulu zehlabathi, kunye nemithombo ye-nickel sulfide yayigxile kakhulu e-Australia, eKhanada, eRashiya, e-China nakwamanye amazwe, ebala ngaphezu kwe-50% yokugcinwa kwe-nickel yehlabathi lonke ngelo xesha.Ukususela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, kunye nokusetyenziswa kunye nokukhuthazwa kweteknoloji ye-lateite nickel ore-nickel-iron e-China, i-lateite nickel ore e-Indonesia kunye neePhilippines iye yaphuhliswa kwaye yasetyenziswa kwinqanaba elikhulu.Ngo-2021, i-Indonesia iya kuba ngumvelisi omkhulu we-nickel wehlabathi, esisisiphumo sokudityaniswa kweteknoloji yaseTshayina, inkunzi kunye nemithombo yase-Indonesia.Intsebenziswano phakathi kwe-China ne-Indonesia yenze igalelo elibalulekileyo kwimpumelelo kunye nozinzo lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.
Ukususela kumbono wesakhiwo semveliso, iimveliso ze-nickel kwintsimi yokujikeleza ziphuhlisa ukuya kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo.Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, kwi-2001, kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi, i-nickel ehlanjululweyo ibalwa njengeyona ndawo iphambili, ngaphezu koko, inxalenye encinci yayiyi-nickel ferronickel kunye ne-nickel salts;ngo-2021, kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi, imveliso ye-nickel esulungekisiweyo ibalwe ukuba iye yehla ukuya kwi-33%, ngelixa umlinganiselo we-NPI (i-nickel pig iron) imveliso equlethe i-nickel inyuke ukuya kuma-50%, kunye ne-nickel yendabuko-iron kunye ne-nickel. iityuwa zibalelwe kwi-17%.Kulindeleke ukuba ngo-2025, umlinganiselo we-nickel esulungekileyo kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi iya kuhla ngakumbi.Ukongeza, ngokwembono yesiseko semveliso ye-nickel yaseTshayina, malunga ne-63% yeemveliso ze-NPI (i-nickel pig iron), malunga ne-25% yeemveliso zi-nickel esulungekileyo, kwaye malunga ne-12% yeemveliso ziyi-nickel salts.
Ngokwembono yotshintsho kumaziko emarike, amashishini abucala aye angawona mandla okubonelela nge-nickel eTshayina nakwihlabathi liphela.Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, phakathi kweetoni ezingama-677,000 zemveliso yenickel yokuqala e-China ngo-2021, amashishini amahlanu aphezulu abucala, kubandakanya iShandong Xinhai, iQingshan Industry, iDelong Nickel, iTangshan Kaiyuan, iSuqian Xiangxiang, kunye neGuangxi Yinyi, evelise iprayimari. nickel.kubalelwa kuma-62.8%.Ngokukodwa ngokumalunga nokuhlelwa kwemizi-mveliso yaphesheya, amashishini abucala ajonga ngaphezulu kwe-75% yamashishini anotyalo-mali lwaphesheya, kunye nekhonkco leshishini elipheleleyo lophuhliso lomgodi we-nickel-nickel-iron-stainless steel yenziwe e-Indonesia.
"I-nickel futures incident" inefuthe elikhulu kwimarike
Iimpembelelo kunye neengxaki eziveziweyo
Okokuqala, ixabiso le-nickel ye-LME yexesha elizayo lenyuka ngobudlova ukusuka ngo-Matshi 7 ukuya kwi-8, kunye nokunyuka okunyukayo kwe-248% kwiintsuku ze-2, okukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekumisweni kweemarike ze-LME zekamva kunye nokunyuka okuqhubekayo kunye nokuwa kwe-nickel ye-Shanghai kwi-Shanghai Futures. Utshintshiselwano.Ixabiso lekamva alilahleki nje kuphela ukubaluleka kwalo okukhokelayo kwixabiso lendawo, kodwa likwadala imiqobo kunye nobunzima kumashishini ukuba athenge imathiriyeli ekrwada kunye nothango.Kwakhona kuphazamisa imveliso eqhelekileyo kunye nokusebenza kwe-nickel phezulu nasezantsi, kubangela umonakalo omkhulu kwi-nickel yehlabathi kunye namaziko ahambelanayo anyukayo nasezantsi.
Okwesibini kukuba "isiganeko se-nickel futures" sisiphumo sokunqongophala kolwazi lolawulo lomngcipheko, ukungabikho koloyiko lweshishini kwimakethi yexesha elizayo yezemali, indlela yokulawula umngcipheko enganelanga kwimarike yexesha elizayo ye-LME, kunye nokuphakama koguquko lwe-geopolitical. .Nangona kunjalo, kumbono wezinto zangaphakathi, esi siganeko siye sabonisa ingxaki yokuba imarike yangoku yasentshona ikude neendawo zokuvelisa kunye nokusetyenziswa, ayikwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zoshishino lwangempela, kwaye ukuphuhliswa kwe-nickel derivatives futures ayizange igcinwe. ngophuhliso kunye notshintsho kushishino.Okwangoku, uqoqosho oluphuhlileyo olunje ngeNtshona alukho abasebenzisi abakhulu besinyithi okanye abavelisi abakhulu.Nangona ubume bogcino bukwilizwe lonke, uninzi lweendawo zokugcina iimpahla kunye neenkampani zokugcina zilawulwa ngabarhwebi bakudala baseYurophu.Kwangaxeshanye, ngenxa yokunqongophala kweendlela ezisebenzayo zokulawula umngcipheko, Kukho iingozi ezifihlakeleyo xa iinkampani zequmrhu zisebenzisa izixhobo zabo zekamva.Ukongeza, uphuhliso lwexesha elizayo le-nickel derivatives aluzange lugcinwe, oluye lwandisa ingozi yokurhweba kwiinkampani zeemveliso ze-nickel ezinxulumene ne-peripheral xa kuphunyezwa ukugcinwa kwexabiso lemveliso.
Malunga noPhuculo lweNickel yaseTshayina yoNikezo lweNickel
Ezinye iiNkuthazo ezivela kwiMiba yoKhuseleko
Okokuqala, bambelela kwingcinga esezantsi kwaye uthathe inyathelo lokuthintela nokulawula umngcipheko.Ushishino lwesinyithi olungenantsimbi luneempawu eziqhelekileyo zokuthengisa, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokufakwa kwemali.Ke ngoko, amashishini amashishini kufuneka aphucule ulwazi lothintelo lomngcipheko, aseke ukucinga okusezantsi, kwaye aphucule inqanaba lesicelo sezixhobo zolawulo lomngcipheko.Amashishini amaqumrhu kufuneka ahloniphe imarike, ayoyike imarike, kwaye alawule imisebenzi yawo.Amashishini "aphumayo" kufuneka aqhelane ngokupheleleyo nemithetho yemarike yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izicwangciso zokusabela kwingxakeko, kwaye aphephe ukuzingelwa nokukrwitshwa yinkunzi yemali eqikelelwayo yaphesheya.Amashishini afumana inkxaso-mali yaseTshayina kufuneka afunde kumava kunye nezifundo.
Okwesibini kukukhawulezisa inkqubo yokuthengiswa kwe-nickel yekamva laseChina kunye nokuphucula amandla amaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi zaseTshayina.I "nickel futures incident" ibalaselisa ukubaluleka kunye nokungxamiseka kokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwezizwe ngezizwe kwekamva lentsimbi engafanelekanga, ngakumbi malunga nokukhawulezisa ukukhuthazwa kweepleyiti zamazwe ngamazwe ze-aluminiyam, i-nickel, i-zinc kunye nezinye iindidi.Ngaphantsi koyilo olukwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuba ilizwe lobutyebi linokwamkela imodeli yokuthengwa kwempahla ejolise kwintengiso kunye nexabiso lentengiso "yeqonga lezizwe ngezizwe, ukuhanjiswa okubophelelekileyo, ukuthengiselana ngexabiso, kunye nehlelo le-RMB", ayizukuseka kuphela umfanekiso waseTshayina wentengiso eqinileyo. urhwebelwano olujolise, kodwa lukwaphucula amandla exabiso lempahla yorhwebo yaseTshayina.Isenokunciphisa umngcipheko wokubiyela wamashishini aphesheya afumana inkxaso-mali eTshayina.Ukongezelela, kuyimfuneko ukomeleza uphando kwiinguqu kwishishini le-nickel, kunye nokunyusa ukulinywa kweentlobo ze-nickel derivative futures.
Malunga noPhuculo lweNickel yaseTshayina yoNikezo lweNickel
Ezinye iiNkuthazo ezivela kwiMiba yoKhuseleko
Okokuqala, bambelela kwingcinga esezantsi kwaye uthathe inyathelo lokuthintela nokulawula umngcipheko.Ushishino lwesinyithi olungenantsimbi luneempawu eziqhelekileyo zokuthengisa, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokufakwa kwemali.Ke ngoko, amashishini amashishini kufuneka aphucule ulwazi lothintelo lomngcipheko, aseke ukucinga okusezantsi, kwaye aphucule inqanaba lesicelo sezixhobo zolawulo lomngcipheko.Amashishini amaqumrhu kufuneka ahloniphe imarike, ayoyike imarike, kwaye alawule imisebenzi yawo.Amashishini "aphumayo" kufuneka aqhelane ngokupheleleyo nemithetho yemarike yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izicwangciso zokusabela kwingxakeko, kwaye aphephe ukuzingelwa nokukrwitshwa yinkunzi yemali eqikelelwayo yaphesheya.Amashishini afumana inkxaso-mali yaseTshayina kufuneka afunde kumava kunye nezifundo.
Okwesibini kukukhawulezisa inkqubo yokuthengiswa kwe-nickel yekamva laseChina kunye nokuphucula amandla amaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi zaseTshayina."I-nickel futures incident" ibalaselisa ukubaluleka kunye nokungxamiseka kokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwezizwe ngezizwe kwekamva lesinyithi esine-non-ferrous, ngakumbi ngokwemigaqo yokukhuthazwa kweepleyiti zamazwe ngamazwe ze-aluminiyam, i-nickel, i-zinc kunye nezinye iindidi ziyakhawuleza.Ngaphantsi koyilo olukwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuba ilizwe lobutyebi linokwamkela imodeli yokuthengwa kwempahla ejolise kwintengiso kunye nexabiso lentengiso "yeqonga lezizwe ngezizwe, ukuhanjiswa okubophelelekileyo, ukuthengiselana ngexabiso, kunye nehlelo le-RMB", ayizukuseka kuphela umfanekiso waseTshayina wentengiso eqinileyo. urhwebelwano olujolise, kodwa lukwaphucula amandla exabiso lempahla yorhwebo yaseTshayina.Isenokunciphisa umngcipheko wokubiyela wamashishini aphesheya afumana inkxaso-mali eTshayina.Ukongezelela, kuyimfuneko ukomeleza uphando kwiinguqu kwishishini le-nickel, kunye nokunyusa ukulinywa kweentlobo ze-nickel derivative futures.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-12-2022