Uluphucula njani uKhuseleko lweSixokelelwano seNickel saseTshayina ukusuka “kwisehlo seNickel Futures”?

Inkcazo:Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, kunye nokuphumelela okuqhubekayo kwetekhnoloji yezixhobo zenickel kunye nophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini elitsha lamandla, ipateni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi lonke iye yatshintsha kakhulu, kwaye amashishini axhaswa ngemali ngamaTshayina adlale indima ebalulekileyo ekukhuthazeni. uhlaziyo lwepateni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi.Kwangaxeshanye, iye yenza igalelo elibalaseleyo kukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.

Hlonipha iMarike kwaye uyihlonele iMarike——Indlela yokuphucula uKhuseleko lweNickel yaseTshayina yeSibonelelo seNickel ukusuka kwi "Nickel Futures Incident"

Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, kunye nokuphumelela okuqhubekayo kwetekhnoloji yezixhobo zenickel kunye nophuhliso olukhawulezayo lweshishini elitsha lamandla, ipateni yeshishini le-nickel yehlabathi iye yatshintsha kakhulu, kwaye amashishini axhaswa ngemali ngamaTshayina adlale indima ebaluleke kakhulu ukukhuthaza uhlaziyo lwepateni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi.Kwangaxeshanye, iye yenza igalelo elibalaseleyo kukhuseleko lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.Kodwa ixabiso le-London nickel futures ngo-Matshi kulo nyaka linyuke ngokungazange libonwe ngaphambili kwi-248% kwiintsuku ezimbini, ebangela umonakalo omkhulu kwiinkampani zangempela kuquka ne-China.Ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, ukusuka kwiinguqu kwipatheni yeshishini le-nickel kwiminyaka yamuva, idibaniswe "nesiganeko sexesha elizayo le-nickel", umbhali uthetha malunga nendlela yokuphucula ukhuseleko lwe-China ye-nickel supply chain.

Utshintsho kwipatheni yoshishino lwenickel yehlabathi

Ngokomlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa, ukusetyenziswa kwe-nickel kuye kwanda ngokukhawuleza, kwaye i-China inegalelo eliphambili ekusetyenzisweni kwe-nickel yehlabathi.Ngokweenkcukacha-manani ze-Nickel Industry Branch ye-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ngo-2021, ukusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yokuqala yehlabathi kuya kufikelela kwi-2.76 yezigidi zeetoni, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka nge-15.9% kunye ne-1.5 amaxesha okusetyenziswa ngo-2001. kubo, ngo-2021, ukusetyenziswa nickel ekrwada China kuya kufikelela 1.542 million tons, ukunyuka konyaka-on-year 14%, 18 amaxesha ukusetyenziswa 2001, kunye nomlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa kwehlabathi liye landa ukusuka 4.5% ngo-2001 ukuya ngoku 56 %.Kunokuthiwa i-90% yokwanda kokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yehlabathi ukususela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha ivela eChina.

Ukususela kumbono wokusetyenziswa kwesakhiwo, ukusetyenziswa kwensimbi engenasici kuzinzile, kwaye umlinganiselo we-nickel osetyenziswa kwintsimi yebhetri uyaqhubeka nokukhula.Kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo, icandelo elitsha lamandla likhokela ukukhula kokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yokuqala yehlabathi.Ngokutsho kwezibalo, kwi-2001, kwisakhiwo sokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel yaseChina, i-nickel yensimbi engenasici ibalwa malunga ne-70%, i-nickel ye-electroplating ibalwa kwi-15%, kunye ne-nickel yeebhetri zibalwa kuphela kwi-5%.Ngo-2021, umlinganiselo we-nickel osetyenziswe kwinsimbi engenasici ekusetyenzisweni kwe-nickel yaseChina iya kuba malunga ne-74%;umlinganiselo wenickel osetyenziswa kwiibhetri uya kunyukela kwi-15%;umlinganiselo wenickel osetyenziswe kwi-electroplating uya kuhla ukuya kwi-5%.Akuzange kubonwe ukuba njengoko imboni entsha yamandla ingena kwindlela ekhawulezayo, imfuno ye-nickel iya kwanda, kwaye umlinganiselo weebhetri kwisakhiwo sokusetyenziswa uya kunyuka ngakumbi.

Ngokombono wepatheni yokubonelela ngezinto eziluhlaza, izinto eziluhlaza zenickel ziye zaguqulwa zisuka kwi-nickel sulfide ore ikakhulu kwi-lateite nickel ore kunye ne-nickel sulfide ore elawulwa ngokudibeneyo.Imithombo ye-nickel yangaphambili yayiyi-ore ye-nickel sulfide egxininiswe kakhulu kwimithombo yehlabathi, kunye nemithombo ye-nickel sulfide yayigxininiswe kakhulu e-Australia, eKhanada, eRashiya, e-China nakwamanye amazwe, ebala ngaphezu kwe-50% yokugcinwa kwe-nickel yehlabathi jikelele ngelo xesha.Ukususela ekuqaleni kwenkulungwane entsha, ngokusetyenziswa kunye nokukhuthazwa kweteknoloji ye-lateite nickel ore-nickel-iron e-China, i-lateite nickel ore e-Indonesia kunye ne-Philippines iye yaphuhliswa kwaye yasetyenziswa kwinqanaba elikhulu.Ngo-2021, i-Indonesia iya kuba ngumvelisi omkhulu we-nickel wehlabathi, esisisiphumo sokudityaniswa kobuchwepheshe baseTshayina, inkunzi kunye nemithombo yase-Indonesia.Intsebenziswano phakathi kwe-China ne-Indonesia yenze igalelo elibalulekileyo kwimpumelelo kunye nozinzo lwekhonkco lokubonelela nge-nickel yehlabathi.

Ukususela kumbono wesakhiwo semveliso, iimveliso ze-nickel kwintsimi yokujikeleza ziphuhlisa ukuya kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo.Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, kwi-2001, kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi, i-nickel ecociweyo ibalwa njengeyona ndawo iphambili, ngaphezu koko, inxalenye encinci yayiyi-nickel ferronickel kunye ne-nickel salts;ngo-2021, kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi, imveliso ye-nickel esulungekisiweyo ibalwe ukuba iye yehla ukuya kwi-33%, ngelixa umlinganiselo we-NPI (i-nickel pig iron) imveliso equlethe i-nickel inyuke ukuya kuma-50%, kunye ne-nickel yendabuko-iron kunye ne-nickel. iityuwa zibalelwa kwi-17%.Kulindeleke ukuba ngo-2025, umlinganiselo we-nickel esulungekileyo kwimveliso ye-nickel ephambili yehlabathi iya kuhla ngakumbi.Ukongeza, ngokwembono yesiseko semveliso ye-nickel yaseTshayina, malunga neepesenti ezingama-63 zeemveliso zi-NPI (intsimbi yehagu ye-nickel), malunga neepesenti ezingama-25 zeemveliso ziyi-nickel esulungekileyo, kwaye malunga ne-12% yeemveliso ziyi-nickel salts.

Ngokwembono yotshintsho kumaziko emarike, amashishini abucala aye angawona mandla okubonelela nge-nickel eTshayina nakwihlabathi liphela.Ngokwezibalo ze-Nickel Industry Branch, phakathi kwe-677,000 yeetoni ze-nickel yokuqala ephuma e-China ngo-2021, amashishini amahlanu aphezulu abucala, kuquka i-Shandong Xinhai, i-Qingshan Industry, i-Delong Nickel, i-Tangshan Kaiyuan, i-Suqian Xiangxiang, kunye ne-Guangxi Yinyi, imveliso yokuqala. nickel.kubalelwa kuma-62.8%.Ngokukodwa ngokumalunga nokuhlelwa kwemizi-mveliso yaphesheya, amashishini abucala ajonga ngaphezulu kwe-75% yamashishini anotyalo-mali lwaphesheya, kunye nekhonkco leshishini elipheleleyo lophuhliso lomgodi we-nickel-nickel-iron-stainless steel yenziwe e-Indonesia.

"I-nickel futures incident" inefuthe elikhulu kwimarike

Iimpembelelo kunye neengxaki eziveziweyo

Okokuqala, ixabiso le-nickel ye-LME yexesha elizayo lenyuka ngobundlobongela ukusuka ngo-Matshi 7 ukuya kwi-8, kunye nokunyuka okunyukayo kwe-248% kwiintsuku ze-2, okukhokelela ngokuthe ngqo ekumisweni kweemarike ze-LME zekamva kunye nokunyuka okuqhubekayo kunye nokuwa kwe-nickel ye-Shanghai kwi-Shanghai Futures. Utshintshiselwano.Ixabiso lekamva alilahleki nje kuphela ukubaluleka kwalo okukhokelayo kwixabiso lendawo, kodwa likwadala imiqobo kunye nobunzima kumashishini ukuba athenge imathiriyeli ekrwada kunye nothango.Ikwaphazamisa imveliso eqhelekileyo kunye nokusebenza kwe-nickel phezulu nasezantsi, kubangela umonakalo omkhulu kwi-nickel yehlabathi kunye namaziko ahambelanayo anyukayo nasezantsi.

Okwesibini kukuba "isiganeko se-nickel futures" sisiphumo sokunqongophala kolwazi lolawulo lomngcipheko, ukungabikho koloyiko lweshishini kwimakethi yexesha elizayo yezemali, indlela yokulawula umngcipheko enganelanga kwimarike yexesha elizayo ye-LME, kunye nokuphakama koguquko lwe-geopolitical. .Nangona kunjalo, ngokwembono yezinto zangaphakathi, esi siganeko siye sabonisa ingxaki yokuba imarike yangoku yasentshona ikude neendawo zokuvelisa kunye nokusetyenziswa, ayikwazi ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zoshishino lwangempela, kwaye ukuphuhliswa kwe-nickel derivatives futures ayizange igcinwe. ngophuhliso kunye notshintsho kushishino.Okwangoku, uqoqosho oluphuhlileyo olunje ngeNtshona alukho abasebenzisi abakhulu besinyithi okanye abavelisi abakhulu.Nangona ubume bogcino bukwilizwe lonke, uninzi lweendawo zokugcina iimpahla kunye neenkampani zokugcina zilawulwa ngabarhwebi bakudala baseYurophu.Kwangaxeshanye, ngenxa yokunqongophala kweendlela ezisebenzayo zokulawula umngcipheko, Kukho iingozi ezifihlakeleyo xa iinkampani zequmrhu zisebenzisa izixhobo zabo zekamva.Ukongezelela, uphuhliso lwexesha elizayo le-nickel derivatives aluzange lugcinwe, oluye lwandisa umngcipheko wokurhweba kwiinkampani zemveliso ye-nickel ezinxulumene ne-peripheral xa kuphunyezwa ukugcinwa kwexabiso lemveliso.

Malunga noPhuculo lweNickel yaseTshayina yoNikezo lweNickel

Ezinye iiNkuthazo ezivela kwiMiba yoKhuseleko

Okokuqala, bambelela kwingcinga esezantsi kwaye uthathe inyathelo lokuthintela nokulawula umngcipheko.Ushishino lwesinyithi olungenantsimbi luneempawu eziqhelekileyo zokuthengisa, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokufakwa kwemali.Ke ngoko, amashishini amashishini kufuneka aphucule ulwazi lothintelo lomngcipheko, aseke ukucinga okusezantsi, kwaye aphucule inqanaba lesicelo sezixhobo zolawulo lomngcipheko.Amashishini amaqumrhu kufuneka ahloniphe imarike, ayoyike imarike, kwaye alawule imisebenzi yawo.Amashishini "aphumayo" kufuneka aqhelane ngokupheleleyo nemithetho yemarike yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izicwangciso zokusabela kwingxakeko, kwaye aphephe ukuzingelwa nokukrwitshwa yinkunzi yemali eqikelelwayo yaphesheya.Amashishini afumana inkxaso-mali yaseTshayina kufuneka afunde kumava kunye nezifundo.

Okwesibini kukukhawulezisa inkqubo yokuthengiswa kwe-nickel yekamva lase-China kunye nokuphucula amandla amaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi zaseTshayina."I-nickel futures incident" ibalaselisa ukubaluleka kunye nokungxamiseka kokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwezizwe ngezizwe kwekamva lentsimbi engafanelekanga, ngakumbi malunga nokukhawulezisa ukukhuthazwa kweepleyiti zamazwe ngamazwe ze-aluminiyam, i-nickel, i-zinc kunye nezinye iindidi.Ngaphantsi koyilo olukwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuba ilizwe lobutyebi linokwamkela ukuthengwa kwempahla ejolise kwintengiso kunye nemodeli yamaxabiso entengiso "yeqonga lezizwe ngezizwe, ukuhanjiswa okubophelelekileyo, ukuthengiselana ngexabiso elishiyekileyo, kunye nehlelo le-RMB", ayizukuseka kuphela umfanekiso waseTshayina wentengiso eqinileyo. urhwebelwano olujolise, kodwa lukwaphucula amandla exabiso lempahla yorhwebo yaseTshayina.Isenokunciphisa umngcipheko wokubiyela wamashishini aphesheya afumana inkxaso-mali eTshayina.Ukongezelela, kuyimfuneko ukomeleza uphando kwiinguqu kwishishini le-nickel, kunye nokunyusa ukulinywa kweentlobo ze-nickel derivative futures.

Malunga noPhuculo lweNickel yaseTshayina yoNikezo lweNickel

Ezinye iiNkuthazo ezivela kwiMiba yoKhuseleko

Okokuqala, bambelela kwingcinga esezantsi kwaye uthathe inyathelo lokuthintela nokulawula umngcipheko.Ushishino lwesinyithi olungenantsimbi luneempawu eziqhelekileyo zokuthengisa, ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokufakwa kwemali.Ke ngoko, amashishini amashishini kufuneka aphucule ulwazi lothintelo lomngcipheko, aseke ukucinga okusezantsi, kwaye aphucule inqanaba lesicelo sezixhobo zolawulo lomngcipheko.Amashishini amaqumrhu kufuneka ahloniphe imarike, ayoyike imarike, kwaye alawule imisebenzi yawo.Amashishini "aphumayo" kufuneka aqhelane ngokupheleleyo nemithetho yemarike yamazwe ngamazwe, enze izicwangciso zokusabela kwingxakeko, kwaye aphephe ukuzingelwa nokukrwitshwa yinkunzi yemali eqikelelwayo yaphesheya.Amashishini afumana inkxaso-mali yaseTshayina kufuneka afunde kumava kunye nezifundo.

Okwesibini kukukhawulezisa inkqubo yokuthengiswa kwe-nickel yekamva lase-China kunye nokuphucula amandla amaxabiso eemveliso ezininzi zaseTshayina."I-nickel futures incident" ibalaselisa ukubaluleka kunye nokungxamiseka kokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwamazwe ngamazwe kwekamva lentsimbi engafanelekanga, ingakumbi ngokwemigaqo yokuKhuthazwa kweepleyiti zamazwe ngamazwe ze-aluminiyam, i-nickel, i-zinc kunye nezinye iindidi ziyakhawuleza.Ngaphantsi koyilo olukwinqanaba eliphezulu, ukuba ilizwe lobutyebi linokwamkela ukuthengwa kwempahla ejolise kwintengiso kunye nemodeli yamaxabiso entengiso "yeqonga lezizwe ngezizwe, ukuhanjiswa okubophelelekileyo, ukuthengiselana ngexabiso elishiyekileyo, kunye nehlelo le-RMB", ayizukuseka kuphela umfanekiso waseTshayina wentengiso eqinileyo. urhwebelwano olujolise, kodwa lukwaphucula amandla exabiso lempahla yorhwebo yaseTshayina.Isenokunciphisa umngcipheko wokubiyela wamashishini aphesheya afumana inkxaso-mali eTshayina.Ukongezelela, kuyimfuneko ukomeleza uphando kwiinguqu kwishishini le-nickel, kunye nokunyusa ukulinywa kweentlobo ze-nickel derivative futures.


Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-12-2022