Inkcazo:Ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno enye yezizathu eziqhuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-nickel, kodwa emva kweemeko zemarike ezinobunzima, iingcamango ezingakumbi kwishishini "zininzi" (ezikhokelwa nguGlencore) kunye "ezingenanto" (ngokukodwa yiQela leTsingshan)..
Kutshanje, ngongquzulwano phakathi kweRashiya ne-Ukraine njenge-fuse, i-LME (iLondon Metal Exchange) ikamva le-nickel laqhambuka kwimarike “enkulu”.
Ukuchasana phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno enye yezizathu eziqhuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-nickel, kodwa emva kweemeko zemarike ezinobunzima, iingcamango ezingakumbi kwishishini kukuba imikhosi yenkunzi yamacala amabini "yinkunzi" (ekhokelwa nguGlencore) kunye " engenanto" (ingakumbi yiTsingshan Group).
Ukugqitywa kwexesha lemarike yenickel ye-LME
Ngomhla we-7 Matshi, ixabiso le-nickel ye-LME lenyuka ukusuka kwi-US $ 30,000 / toni (ixabiso lokuvula) ukuya kwi-US $ 50,900 / toni (ixabiso lokuhlalisa), ukunyuka kosuku olunye malunga ne-70%.
Ngomhla wesi-8 kuMatshi, amaxabiso enickel e-LME aqhubekile nokunyuka, enyuka ukuya kutsho kubuninzi be-US$101,000/ton, aze abuyele ku-US$80,000/toni.Kwiintsuku ezimbini zokurhweba, ixabiso lenickel le-LME linyuke ukuya kuthi ga kwi-248%.
Ngentsimbi yesi-4:00 emva kwemini nge-8 kaMatshi, i-LME yagqiba ekubeni ikumise urhwebo lwe-nickel elizayo kwaye ihlehlise ukuhanjiswa kwazo zonke iikontraki zenickel ezazicwangciselwe ukuhanjiswa nge-9 kaMatshi.
Ngomhla we-9 kaMatshi, iQela leTsingshan liphendule ukuba liza kuthatha indawo yepleyiti ye-nickel yensimbi yasekhaya kunye nepleyiti yayo ephezulu ye-nickel, kwaye yabele indawo eyaneleyo yokuhanjiswa ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo.
Nge-10 kaMatshi, i-LME yathi iceba ukulungisa izikhundla ezinde nezimfutshane ngaphambi kokuvulwa kwakhona korhwebo lwe-nickel, kodwa omabini amacala asilela ukuphendula kakuhle.
Ukusukela nge-11 ukuya kwi-15 kaMatshi, i-nickel ye-LME iqhubekile nokunqunyanyiswa.
Nge-15 kaMatshi, i-LME yabhengeza ukuba ikhontrakthi ye-nickel iya kuphinda iqalise ukurhweba nge-16 kaMatshi ngexesha lasekhaya.IQela leTsingshan lithe liza kulungelelanisa ne-syndicate ye-liquidity credit ye-Tsingshan's nickel hold margin kunye neemfuno zokuhlawula.
Ngamafutshane, iRashiya, njengomthengisi obalulekileyo wemithombo ye-nickel, yahlwaywa ngenxa yemfazwe yaseRashiya-ye-Ukrainian, eyabangela ukungakwazi kwe-nickel yaseRashiya ukuba ihanjiswe kwi-LME, ibekwe phezulu kwizinto ezininzi ezifana nokungakwazi ukuzalisa izixhobo ze-nickel I-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia ngexesha elifanelekileyo, ii-odolo ezingenanto zeQela leTsingshan zokubiyela zinokuthi zingenzeki.
Kukho imiqondiso eyahlukeneyo ebonisa ukuba lo msitho ubizwa ngokuba "yi-short squeeze" awukapheli, kwaye unxibelelwano kunye nomdlalo phakathi kwabachaphazelekayo abade nabafutshane, i-LME, kunye namaziko emali asaqhuba.
Ukuthatha oku njengethuba, eli nqaku liza kuzama ukuphendula le mibuzo ilandelayo:
1. Kutheni i-nickel metal ibe yinto ekugxilwe kuyo kumdlalo wenkunzi?
2. Ngaba unikezelo lwemithombo ye-nickel lwanele?
3. Ukunyuka kwexabiso lenikeli kuya kuyichaphazela kangakanani imarike yezithuthi zamandla amatsha?
I-Nickel yebhetri yamandla iba yipali entsha yokukhula
Ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kwihlabathi, olugqithise umgangatho we-nickel ephezulu kunye ne-cobalt ephantsi kwiibhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary, i-nickel yeebhetri zamandla iba yinto entsha yokukhula yokusetyenziswa kwe-nickel.
Ishishini liqikelela ukuba ngo-2025, ibhetri ye-ternary yamandla ehlabathi iya kuphendula malunga ne-50%, apho iibhetri ze-nickel ternary ziya kuba ngaphezu kwe-83%, kwaye umlinganiselo we-5-series ternary battery uya kuhla ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-17%.Imfuno yenickel nayo iyakunyuka ukusuka kwi-66,000 yeetoni ngo-2020 ukuya kwi-620,000 yeetoni ngo-2025, kunye nomndilili wokukhula komndilili wonyaka we-48% kule minyaka mine izayo.
Ngokoqikelelo, imfuno yehlabathi yenickel yeebhetri zamandla nayo iya kunyuka ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-7% ngoku ukuya kuma-26% ngo-2030.
Njengenkokeli yehlabathi kwizithuthi zamandla amatsha, ukuziphatha kukaTesla "kwe-nickel hoarding" kuphantse kwaphambana.I-CEO ye-Tesla u-Musk uye wakhankanya amaxesha amaninzi ukuba izixhobo ze-nickel ekrwada yeyona nto inkulu kaTesla.
I-Gaogong Lithium iye yaqaphela ukuba ukususela ngo-2021, uTesla uye wasebenzisana ngokulandelelana kunye nenkampani yemigodi yaseFransi yeNew Caledonia iProni Resources, i-Australian mining giant BHP Billiton, iBrazil Vale, inkampani yemigodi yaseCanada iGiga Metals, i-American Minener Talon Metals, njl njl. inani lezivumelwano zexesha elide zokubonelela nge-nickel concentrates.
Ukongeza, iinkampani ezikwishishini lebhetri yamandla njengeCATL, iGEM, iHuayou Cobalt, iZhongwei, kunye neQela leTsingshan nazo zonyusa ulawulo lwazo kwizixhobo zenickel.
Oku kuthetha ukuba ukulawula izibonelelo ze-nickel kufana nokufunda itikiti kumzila weetriliyoni zeedola.
IGlencore ngoyena mrhwebi wezinto ezithengiswayo kwihlabathi kwaye yenye yezona zinto ziphinda zisetyenziswe emhlabeni jikelele kunye nabacuphi bezinto ezinenickel, enepotfoliyo yemisebenzi yemigodi yenickel eKhanada, eNorway, eOstreliya naseNew Coledonia.asethi.Ngo-2021, ingeniso ye-nickel ye-nickel yenkampani iya kuba yi-US $ 2.816 yezigidigidi, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka malunga ne-20%.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-LME, ukususela nge-10 kaJanuwari ka-2022, umlinganiselo weerisithi ze-nickel ze-warehouse ezigcinwe ngumthengi omnye ziye zanda ngokuthe ngcembe ukusuka kwi-30% ukuya kwi-39%, kwaye ekuqaleni kukaMatshi, umlinganiselo weerisithi ze-warehouse zizonke ziye zadlula i-90% .
Ngokwalo bukhulu, imarike iqikelela ukuba iinkunzi zenkomo kulo mdlalo mfutshane zinokwenzeka ukuba yiGlencore.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iQela leTsingshan liphule iteknoloji yokulungiselela "i-NPI (intsimbi ye-nickel yehagu evela kwi-nickel ore ye-nickel) - i-nickel matte ephezulu", eye yanciphisa kakhulu iindleko kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iphule impembelelo ye-nickel sulfate kwi-nickel ecocekileyo. (ngomxholo we-nickel ongekho ngaphantsi kwe-99.8 %, eyaziwa ngokuba yi-nickel yokuqala).
Kwelinye icala, i-2022 iya kuba ngunyaka apho iprojekthi entsha yeQela leTsingshan e-Indonesia iya kuqaliswa ukusebenza.I-Tsingshan inokulindela ukukhula okuqinileyo kumthamo wayo wemveliso esakhiwayo.Ngo-Matshi ka-2021, i-Tsingshan yatyikitya isivumelwano sokubonelela nge-nickel matte ephezulu kunye ne-Huayou Cobalt kunye ne-Zhongwei Co., Ltd. I-Tsingshan iya kubonelela ngeetoni ezingama-60,000 ze-nickel matte ephezulu ku-Huayou Cobalt kunye neetoni ezingama-40,000 kwi-Zhongwei Co., Ltd. kwisithuba sonyaka omnye ukusuka kwi-21 ka-Okthobha. I-nickel matte ephezulu.
Kufuneka kuphawulwe ukuba iimfuno ze-LME kwiimveliso zokuhanjiswa kwe-nickel ziyi-nickel ecocekileyo, kunye ne-matte nickel ephezulu yimveliso ephakathi engenakusetyenziselwa ukuhanjiswa.I-nickel esulungekileyo yeQingshan ithengwa kakhulu evela eRashiya.I-nickel yaseRashiya yavalwa ekurhwebeni ngenxa yemfazwe yaseRashiya-yaseUkrainian, iphakamisa uluhlu lwe-nickel oluphantsi kakhulu lwehlabathi, olubeka iQingshan emngciphekweni wokuba "akukho mpahla yokulungelelanisa".
Kungenxa yoko le nto umdlalo omfutshane we-nickel yentsimbi usondele.
Oovimba be-nickel behlabathi kunye nokubonelela
Ngokutsho kwe-United States Geological Survey (USGS), ukusuka ekupheleni kuka-2021, oovimba be-nickel behlabathi (oovimba abaqinisekisiweyo beediphozithi ezisekelwe emhlabeni) bamalunga ne-95 yezigidi zeetoni.
Phakathi kwabo, i-Indonesia kunye ne-Australia zineetoni ezizigidi ezingama-21 ngokulandelanayo, zibalelwa kwi-22%, zilinganisa ezimbini eziphezulu;IBrazil yenza i-17% ye-nickel reserves ye-16 yezigidi zeetoni, kwindawo yesithathu;IRashiya kunye neePhilippines zenza i-8% kunye ne-5% ngokulandelanayo.I-%, ibekwe kwindawo yesine okanye yesihlanu.Amazwe akwi-TOP5 enza i-74% yemithombo ye-nickel yehlabathi.
Oovimba be-nickel baseTshayina bamalunga ne-2.8 yezigidi zeetoni, ezibalelwa kwi-3%.Njengomthengi omkhulu wemithombo ye-nickel, i-China ixhomekeke kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwemithombo ye-nickel, kunye nezinga lokungenisa elingaphezu kwe-80% iminyaka emininzi.
Ngokobume be-ore, i-nickel ore yohlulwe kakhulu kwi-nickel sulfide kunye ne-lateite ye-nickel, kunye nomlinganiselo omalunga ne-6:4.Eyangaphambili ifumaneka ikakhulu eOstreliya, eRashiya nakweminye imimandla, kwaye le yokugqibela ifumaneka ikakhulu eIndonesia, eBrazil, kwiiPhilippines nakweminye imimandla.
Ngokwemarike yesicelo, imfuno esezantsi ye-nickel ikakhulu kukwenziwa kwensimbi engenasici, i-alloys kunye neebhetri zamandla.I-akhawunti yensimbi engenasici malunga ne-72%, i-alloys kunye ne-castings akhawunti malunga ne-12%, kunye ne-nickel yeebhetri malunga ne-7%.
Ngaphambili, bekukho iindlela ezimbini ezizimeleyo zokubonelela nge-nickel chain: "i-latterite nickel-nickel pig iron / nickel iron-stainless steel" kunye "ne-nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".
Ngaxeshanye, unikezelo kunye nemfuno yemarike ye-nickel nayo ngokuthe ngcembe ijongene nokungalingani kwesakhiwo.Kwelinye icala, inani elikhulu leeprojekthi ze-nickel pig iron eziveliswe yinkqubo ye-RKEF ziye zafakwa ekusebenzeni, ezikhokelela kwintsalela ye-nickel yehagu yehagu;ngakolunye uhlangothi, iqhutywe ngokukhawuleza kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha, iibhetri Ukukhula kwe-nickel kubangele ukunqongophala kwe-nickel ecocekileyo.
Idatha evela kwi-World Bureau of Metal Statistics ingxelo ibonisa ukuba kuya kubakho i-surplus ye-84,000 yeetoni ze-nickel kwi-2020. Ukususela kwi-2021, imfuno ye-nickel yehlabathi iya kunyuka kakhulu.Ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kuqhubele phambili ukukhula kokusetyenziswa komda wenickel, kwaye ukunqongophala kobonelelo kwimarike ye-nickel yehlabathi kuya kufikelela kwiitoni ezingama-144,300 ngo-2021.
Nangona kunjalo, ngokuphumelela kobuchwephesha bokulungiswa kwemveliso ephakathi, le ndlela yokubonelela ngesakhiwo ekhankanywe ngasentla iyophulwa.Okokuqala, i-low-grade laterite ore inokuvelisa i-nickel sulfate ngemveliso emanzi ephakathi kwenkqubo ye-HPAL;okwesibini, i-high-grade laterite ore inokuvelisa intsimbi ye-nickel yehagu ngenkqubo ye-RKEF pyrotechnic, kwaye emva koko idlule kwi-converter evuthelayo ukuvelisa i-nickel matte ephezulu, ethi ivelise i-nickel sulfate.Iqaphela ukuba kunokwenzeka ukusetyenziswa kwe-lateite nickel ore kwishishini elitsha lamandla.
Okwangoku, iiprojekthi zokuvelisa ezisebenzisa iteknoloji ye-HPAL ziquka iRamu, iMoa, iCoral Bay, iTaganito, njl. Ngelo xesha, iprojekthi yeQingmeibang ityalwe yiCATL kunye neGEM, iprojekthi yeHuayue nickel-cobalt etyalwe nguHuayou Cobalt, kunye neHuafei nickel. -cobalt iprojekthi etyalwe nguYiwei zonke ziiprojekthi zenkqubo yeHPAL.
Ukongeza, iprojekthi ye-nickel matte ephezulu ekhokelwa yiQela leTsingshan yafakwa ekusebenzeni, ekwavula umsantsa phakathi kwe-nickel ye-nickel kunye ne-nickel sulfate, kwaye yaqaphela ukuguqulwa kwentsimbi ye-nickel yehagu phakathi kwensimbi engenasici kunye namashishini amatsha amandla.
Imboniselo yemboniselo kukuba kwixesha elifutshane, ukukhutshwa komthamo ophezulu we-nickel matte wokuvelisa akukafiki kubukhulu bokunciphisa umsantsa wokubonelela ngezinto ze-nickel, kwaye ukukhula konikezelo lwe-nickel sulfate kusaxhomekeke ekunyibilikeni kwe-nickel yokuqala njenge iimbotyi zenickel/nickel powder.gcina umkhwa owomeleleyo.
Ekuhambeni kwexesha, ukusetyenziswa kwe-nickel kwiinkalo zemveli ezifana nensimbi engenasici kuye kwagcina ukukhula okuzinzileyo, kwaye umkhwa wokukhula ngokukhawuleza kwintsimi yeebhetri zamandla e-ternary ngokuqinisekileyo.Umthamo wokuvelisa "i-nickel pig iron-high nickel matte" iprojekthi ikhululiwe, kwaye iprojekthi yenkqubo ye-HPAL iya kungena kwixesha lokuvelisa ngobuninzi kwi-2023. Imfuno epheleleyo yezibonelelo ze-nickel iya kugcina ibhalansi eqinile phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kwi kwixesha elizayo.
Impembelelo yokunyuka kwexabiso lenickel kwimarike yezithuthi zamandla amatsha
Enyanisweni, ngenxa yexabiso le-nickel elinyukayo, i-Tesla's Model 3 inguqulo ephezulu yokusebenza kunye ne-Model Y ubomi obude, inguqulo ephezulu yokusebenza esebenzisa iibhetri eziphezulu ze-nickel ziye zanda nge-10,000 yuan.
Ngokutsho kweGWh nganye ye-high-nickel ternary lithium ibhetri (ukuthatha i-NCM 811 njengomzekelo), iitoni ze-750 zensimbi ze-nickel ziyafuneka, kunye ne-GWh nganye ye-nickel ephakathi kunye nephantsi (i-5 series, i-6 series) i-ternary lithium ibhetri ifuna i-500-600 iitoni zentsimbi nickel.Emva koko ixabiso leyunithi ye-nickel linyuka nge-10,000 yuan ngetoni yesinyithi, oku kuthetha ukuba iindleko ze-ternary lithium iibhetri nge-GWh zonyuka malunga ne-5 yezigidi ze-yuan ukuya kwi-7.5 yezigidi ze-yuan.
Uqikelelo olunzima kukuba xa ixabiso le-nickel li-US $ 50,000 / ton, iindleko zeTesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) ziya kunyuka nge-10,500 yuan;kwaye xa ixabiso le-nickel likhuphukela kwi-US $ 100,000 / ton, iindleko zeTesla Model 3 ziya kwanda.Ukwanda phantse 28,000 yuan.
Ukusukela ngo-2021, intengiso yehlabathi yezithuthi zamandla amatsha iye yanda, kwaye ukungena kwintengiso yeebhetri zamandla enickel ephezulu kuye kwakhawuleza.
Ngokukodwa, iimodeli eziphakamileyo zezithuthi zombane zaphesheya ubukhulu becala zamkela indlela yetekhnoloji yenickel ephezulu, ekhokelele ekwandeni okukhulu komthamo ofakiweyo weebhetri eziphezulu zenickel kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe, kubandakanya iCATL, iPanasonic, LG Energy, I-Samsung SDI, i-SKI kunye nezinye iinkampani eziphambili zebhetri e-China, eJapan nase-South Korea.
Ngokubhekiselele kwimpembelelo, kwelinye icala, ukuguqulwa kwangoku kwentsimbi ye-nickel yengulube kwi-nickel ephezulu ye-matte kuye kwakhokelela ekukhululweni okucothayo kwamandla okuvelisa iprojekthi ngenxa yoqoqosho olunganeleyo.Amaxabiso e-nickel ayaqhubeka nokunyuka, okuya kuvuselela amandla okuvelisa iiprojekthi eziphezulu ze-nickel matte zase-Indonesia ukukhawulezisa imveliso.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziphathekayo, izithuthi zamandla amatsha ziqalise ukunyusa amaxabiso ngokudibeneyo.Ishishini ngokuqhelekileyo lixhalabile ukuba ukuba ixabiso lezinto ze-nickel liqhubeka livutha, ukuveliswa kunye nokuthengiswa kweemodeli eziphezulu ze-nickel zezithuthi zamandla amatsha zinokunyuka okanye zikhawulelwe kulo nyaka.
Ixesha lokuposa: Apr-12-2022